SCOPE
by Hidde Kolmeijer and Gernot Wagner
Fig. 1 | Spatial Crude Oil Price Equilibrium Model (SCOPE) outputs modeling supply disruptions at key maritime chokepoints and pipelines. a, shows the global map of oil fields (supply), refineries (demand), and key shipping routes and pipelines, as well as maritime chokepoints. b, plots model outputs for a timeline of events beginning January 2026, modeling the Iran War, subsequent International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinated strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) release, and Houthi attacks at Bab el-Mandeb. Future events model a possible closure of Petroline, the Saudi East-West Pipeline, showing oil prices above $150, and a stop of IEA SPR release. The graph shows oil supply in million barrels per day (MB/d), as well as historic Brent crude and Dubai Platts prices for historic comparison. c, SCOPE includes key maritime chokepoints. The supply–demand risk associated with the closure of individual straits was evaluated by running SCOPE over a 30-day period, introducing a closure on day 10, and analyzing the resulting market shock.
SCOPE (Spatial Crude Oil Price Equilibrium) is a research tool that models the global crude oil market as a spatial network. It simulates how prices, trade flows, and supply chains respond to disruptions such as strait closures, sanctions, and capacity shocks.
The model combines a classical Samuelson-Takayama-Judge spatial equilibrium framework with a physical network of 2,500+ oil fields, 574 refineries, and 90,000+ shipping and pipeline edges. It solves a daily linear program to determine equilibrium prices, production, and trade flows across the entire network simultaneously.
Model extensions, e.g. product-price module:
Crude oil, jet fuel, and diesel prices through August 2026, after a re-opening of Hormuz during the last week of May.
